The shape of things to come

October 16 1978

The shape of things to come

October 16 1978

The shape of things to come

As the 63 candidates enter the homestretch for the Oct. 16 By-election Cup, Maclean’s herewith presents a schematic look at the 15 ridings. Not all the horses will go the distance and, with apologies, we’ve left them off our chart. The facts and readings on front-runners are based on reports, filed 10 days before the vote, by six staff writers and four regional correspondents who trailed national leaders and candidates in seven provinces and talked to key party strategists.

Major Conservative policies, on the other hand, are receiving favorable attention, from a proposed $2-billion tax cut to credits for small business investment. The most striking case in point is Clark’s plan to allow deductions for mortgage interest (up to $5,000) and property tax (to $1,000). The Tory

leader has not demonstrated how the program could be financed without new taxes, or whether the provinces would participate. But Liberal insiders concede their attack on Clark’s plan has failed. Current owners and apartmentrenters who want to own a first home are equally moved. When Trudeau denounced the plan in York-Scarborough as a “handout,” there wasn’t even a ripple of applause. No doubt casting his mind to the sprawling middle-class suburbia outside the hall, Liberal candidate Paul Cosgrove paled visibly.

It is a measure of Trudeau’s diminished coin in English Canada that na-

The Toronto Five

BROADVIEW (NDP 1,234)*

Tom Clifford (PC), city alderman, 53, right-wing monarchist, colorless, well-known local.

Bob Rae (NDP), articling lawyer, 30, Rhodes Scholar, leftish activist, diplomat’s son, media favorite.

Philipp Varelis (L), accountant, 41, speaks Greek, little English, party outsider, base is ethnic vote.

I (L 3,139)

Doris Anderson (L), author, 56, 18 years Chatelaine editor, Trilateralist, Liberal insider.

Rob Parker (PC), broadcaster, 35, ex-CBC host (Up Canada), glib, milking Trudeauphobia, witty.

PARKDALE (L 6,001)

Art Eggleton (L), city alderman, 35, respected budget chief, elected four times, moderate, bland.

Yuri Shymko (PC), schoolteacher, 38, multilingual, right of Eggleton, lost twice provincially.

ROSEDALE (L 3,108)

David Crombie (PC), ex-mayor, 42, Tory superstar, reformer, performer, consistent vote-getter. John Evans (L), ex-university president, 49, Liberal superstar, billed as future leader, brilliant academic record, national unity commissioner.

YORK-SCARBOROUGH (L 8,739)

Paul Cosgrove (L), ex-mayor, 43, six years boss of Scarborough, popular centrist, opposes death penalty.

Rae natural favorite since John Gilbert, appointed judge by Liberals, held seat NDP for past 13 years. But weak campaign by Varelis hurts Rae, as does NDPer’s youth (though Rae helped by his sister, ex-Trudeau friend, Jennifer). Clifford, ward heeler from area at City Hall for nine years, cashing in old chits. Leaning PC, NDP has fighting chance.

Mitchell Sharp’s turf for 15 years, until he took government appointment. First Liberal candidate, Rev. Roland de Corneille, dropped out. Fierce anti-Trudeau sentiment. Anderson

started too late, was at least 8,000 doorbells behind Parker. Looks good for PCs.

Liberal stronghold since 1962 due to Stan Haidasz, Polish Canadian in riding heavy with East European stock. Working-class area with high unemployment. NDP holds three seats provincially, slight boost to candidate Doug Little. But a Grit-Tory affair. Leaning Liberal.

“Evans,” as Liberals note in sorrow, “is dead.” Until Crombie entered, Evans was destined for cabinet, replacing retired Don Macdonald. But Rosedale likes cuddly Crombie enough to offset reservations about Joe Clark. A shame one has to lose.

Held since 1965 by Liberal Bob Stanbury, retired. That and Cosgrove name help Liberals. McCrossan claims 10,000 doors knocked,

Paul McCrossan (PC), actuary, 36, right of Crosgrove, lower profile, favors death penalty.

counts on anti-government tide in largest, fastestgrowing riding. Leaning Liberal, PCs closing.

In Toronto, strictly a national-trends campaign. No local issues, just party reps. Economy and Trudeau are the issues. Clark is not loved, but feeling against Trudeau approaches irrational. Liberals could lose all five. If York-Scarborough goes Tory, Trudeau has big trouble.

HUMBER-ST. GEORGE’S-ST. BARBE (Nfld.) (PC 6,451)

George Billard (L), community worker, 46, independent-minded, glib extrovert, widely known.

Bill Brown (PC), ex-city councillor, 47, best known in Corner Brook (not all good), to Billard’s right, improves on second meeting.

HALIFAX-EAST HANTS

(PC 7,255)

Howard Crosby (PC), lawyer, 44, outsider unloved by Tories, architect of legal aid, “Say ‘No’ to Trudeau.”

Ken Maclnnis (L), lawyer, 35, exaide to Liberal Allan MacEachen in Ottawa, personable, fought Regan government.

FUNDY-ROYAL (N.B.) (PC 2,786)

Robert Corbett (PC), nursing home owner, 39, provincial MLA for four years, right-winger, fans monarchy issue.

Joseph Day (L), lawyer, 33, returned to riding only 15 months; defensive; personal campaign.

LOTBINIERE (Que.) (C 10,563)

Jean-Guy Dubois (L), lawyer, 30, life-long rouge, Optimist, Victoriaville jock.

Billard doling out government money, strong in traditional Liberal outports. The battle is Corner Brook. Biggest issue: least popular leader—Tory Premier Frank Moores or Trudeau? NDPer Fonse Faour,

backed by fishermen’s

union, might even come second. Could go Liberal.

Newly elected Tory Premier john Buchanan wants to see Trudeau out; his party holds six of seven provincial seats in federal riding, vacated when Tory Bob McCleave went to bench. Anti-Trudeau sentiment, civil service cuts and unemployment insurance

changes hurt Liberals. Safe Tory seat.

Another government appointment, Gordon Fairweather’s as human rights commissioner, caused byelection. His margin was dwindling, but it’s Orange country, rural and has never elected a Liberal. In the blue bag.

Does Créditiste leader André Fortin’s death in car crash, defections and conviction of one MP spell the end of Réal Caouette’s movement? This is test for Janelle, Fortin’s onetime

tional unity is rarely mentioned, although the Quebec independence referendum looms. Trudeau has been so stung by anti-French bias in Toronto, for example, that he visits the city reluctantly. On one recent trip he pointedly broke off a public exchange in Spanish “because some of you think I’m speaking French.”

Trudeau’s strength continues unabated in Quebec (an authoritative poll in the tabloid Dimanche-Matin gave Liberals 68 per cent, Conservatives 14). What with the Conservative party grip on English Canada, this “little election,” as Clark calls it, raises the spectre of a split along linguistic lines between the two main federal parties at the time of the Quebec referendum.

Despite his improved showing in the Gallup poll* last week, Clark just hasn’t been able to pull Quebeckers aboard his

bandwagon in English Canada. He is not helped by the paucity of party spokesmen like himself who can actually appear on French-language network news programs. “We just aren’t there,” sighs a dispirited Conservative strategist.

For his part, NDP leader Ed Broadbent is meeting the Liberal-Conservative commitment to spending cuts headon. “It is a bit difficult for Pierre Clark or Joe Trudeau to square off,” he rails. “If they sound the same, it’s because they are the same. The only difference is that Clark hasn’t learned the Trudeau shrug.”

Spending cuts, Broadbent maintains, amount to a vain attempt at “restraining ourselves into prosperity.” Instead, Broadbent advocates federal spending cuts of $1.7 billion to create long-term jobs and calls for an indus-

trial strategy to develop Canada’s resources at home. He also wants a cut to eight per cent from 12 in the manufacturers’ sales tax.

The diffuse byelection campaign this week takes to the national stage as Parliament returns from an extended summer break. Tory John Crosbie has revealed in stark terms his party’s approach: “Good” laws will be passed but, otherwise, it is “certainly going to be ferocious because we’ll have to go for their jugular.” As any naturalist knows, nothing is meaner than a cornered beast—and certainly no political animal fights harder than a Liberal with his back against the wall. Stay tuned. The show promises to outrate Network, v

* Liberals down four (il percent), Conservatives up three (38 per cent), New Democrats up two (17 per cent). PCs now lead everywhere except in Quebec.

Richard nessman, provincial Janelle (C), 31, colorless, party, amiable. busi heads Jacinthe~ Lavigne (PC), political scientist, 28, ambitious, informa tion officer, Victoriaville College, proposes tax deductions for sala ries of farm wives.

SAINT-HYACINTHE (Quo.) (PC 5,448) Marcel Ostiguy (L), businessman, 49, former Liberal MNA ousted by P0, bouncy, runs farm equipment company. Charles-August. Gauvin (PC), alderman, 60, municipal politico for 29 years, stresses farm prices, keeps bees.

WESTMOUNT (QUE.) (L 9,241) Bernard Finestone (PC), insur ance broker, 58, ex-head Board of Trade, community activist, old smoothie. Donald Johnston (L), lawyer, 42, ardent Trudeau-backer, tax ex pert, Bill 101 opponent, cabinet timber.

Robert de Cotret (PC), econo mist, 34, free-enterpriser, poor speaker, retentionist, Tory star. OTTAWA CENTRE (L 3,170)

organizer. Challenger is Du bois, seeking to reclaim old Liberal seat. Dark horse is Lavigne,~ backed by Parti Ouébécois and Union Na tionale workers; tough climb for a woman in clas sic rural riding. Leaning Créditiste, but PCs might surprise.

Since Claude Wagner took to Senate, Tories scram bling, despite holding seat for past 21 years. Liberals firing all guns: a Trudeau visit, invasion by cabinet ministers led by Jeanne Sauvé. Color it Liberal, though Tories close.

Safe Liberal seat, if there is one, held since 1962 by Bud Drury until government appointment. But Liberals nervous; Finestone urges vote against Trudeau gov ernment. Big francophone vote and historical Jewish loyalty to Liberals work against Finestone. Re duced Liberal majority likely.

Civil service cuts in bureau~ crat-heavy riding and "Tru deau Liberal" tag hurt para chutist Mackasey who at tacks Tories for promising more firings. Anti-govern-

Bryce Mackasey (L), politician, 57, mercurial, best performer, abolitionist, has royal jelly.

HAMILTON-WENT WORTH (PC 1,005) Jim Bennett (L), political aide, 34, worked trade and commerce as ministerial staffer, farmer's boy, retentionist, lives in Tory strong hold. Ken Lee (NDP), high-school prin cipal, 44, former alderman, can hoist with the steelmen, abolitionist. Geoff Scott (PC), broadcaster, 40, Hamilton TV "face" from press gallery, slick, retentionist.

• ST. BONIFACE (Man.) (L 3,249) Robert Bockstael (L), construc tion executive, 55, five years on city council, offers as possible minister (only Manitoba Liberal MP), abolitionist. Jack Hare (PC), agricultural con sultant, 58, ran in `74, retention ist, calls Trudeau "socialist."

BURNABY-RICHNOND-DELlA (PC 16,443) Tony Schmand (L), food-plant supervisor, 53, proud red-neck, for mer Delta alderman, retentionist. Tom Siddon (PC), engineer, 36, UBC professor,square-jawed,slick Clark classmate, retentionist.

ment mood could mean his first loss in seven lusty campaigns. The Bryce is not right.

Good three-way race. Lee backed by top NDP organ izer Michael Lewis, formid able MPP Ian Deans and I steelworkers-but aboli tion stance hurts. Localboy Bennett well organized with cabinet-level support. Scott, late-starter, alien ated many Tories but in herits solid Tory base from Sean O'Sullivan, studying for priesthood. Clark's mortgage deductions big winner. Dependent on na tional trends, PCs have edge.

Opened when Joe Guay ap pointed to Senate. Fastgrowing population re duced traditional Liberal francophone vote to 20 per cent. Suburbs are anti-Tru deau. Even Guay admits it's lost. Another loser: Socred leader Lorne Reznowski. PC upset possible.

Siddon's opponents de serve bravery awards for showing. Vancouver bed room community (two cars, a camper and a boat in the driveway) went over a year without an MP (Tory John Reynolds retired to broad casting) and cared less. Shoppers crossing border to Bellingham, Washington, hit by dollar. They can't stand Trudeau. Solid Tory.