GENERAL ARTICLES

Forecast for 1945

What's ahead for 1945? No crystal ball stuff this, but the considered opinions of authorities on war, industry, religion—and sports

January 1 1945
GENERAL ARTICLES

Forecast for 1945

What's ahead for 1945? No crystal ball stuff this, but the considered opinions of authorities on war, industry, religion—and sports

January 1 1945

MAX WERNER

Noted Military Analyst, Author of “Attack Will Win.”

GERMANY will be defeated before April 1. The German Army will be brought to definite disintegration west of the Rhine, in Austria and Czechoslovakia, in Silesia and west of the Warthe River.

The occupation of Germany after defeat will be accomplished without difficulty and will function smoothly. There will not be guerilla war there, nor will the defeated and destroyed Nazi Party go underground. But there will be hard struggles fought inside Germany by the Germans themselves against the remnants of the Nazi Party and its reactionary allies.

American-British compromise will be reached in economic, naval and air affairs. American-British-Russian-French political co-operation will be consolidated. Security alliances on the pattern of British-Russian and Russian-Czechoslovak treaties will unite the European Continent from France to the Soviet Union. The foundation for a Balkan Federation will be laid in the home of the World Security organization. The political trend in eastern Europe, on the Balkans, in France and in Italy will be toward the left. The Franco regime in Spain will be overthrown.

In the Far East the Allies will occupy all the Philippines, the Dutch Indies, Burma, Formosa and land on the Chinese coast. Japan will be beaten on the sea and in the air and weakened on land.

E. K. LINDLEY

Washington Correspondent of Maclean’s

EFFECTIVE military resistance in Germany will end early in the year. Allied forces will capture Formosa and a number of smaller islands in the inner Japanese Empire. They will make successful landings on the coast of China. They will recapture Singapore and Malaya and occupy Bangkok. The liberation of the Philippines will be completed. The liberation of the East Indies will be well advanced.

The Japanese home islands will be bombed at least 200 times, and before the end of the year will be subjected # to regular bombardment by the “light heavy” bombers now used against Germany, as well as by long-range planes of the superfortress type. Russia will enter the war against Japan. Japan will try to negotiate peace but her proposal will meet with refusal by the Allies.

Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin will confer at least once. The United Nations security organization will be set up. The United States Senate will ratify a basic treaty providing for the participation of the United States, and Congress will approve the necessary supplementary agreements. Allied relationships will be strained by differing views about the peace and reviving trade problems. There will be many unpleasant bickerings but no serious ruptures. The United States will grant credits to Britain, the Soviet Union, France, and some of the smaller European nations for reconstruction.

After V-E day war production in the United States will be cut by about 35%; the manufacture of automobiles, refrigerators and other durable consumers’ goods will be resumed. Basic wage rates will be increased. Price controls will be maintained. Rationing of food, shoes, and gasoline will continue. The social insurance system will be extended to groups now uncovered. Taxes on the whole will remain unchanged.

Long-range methods of wholesale destruction and killing, more effective than V-l and V-2, will be developed and possibly used, thus making the firm organization of the peace even more obviously imperative.

R. S. HART

President, National Steel Car Corp.

I AM highly optimistic for ourselves and Canadian industry generally. I am confident that business will be maintained at a high level. Certainly there is no serious anticipation of production curtailment, although some cutbacks must be expected.

Recently revised estimates of the fighting job still to be done in Europe suggest that in a general way it might be well into 1945 before adjustments are extensive. In our own case, with domestic and foreign orders now on hand, capacity production in our peacetime field is assured, and prospects for future business in the transportation equipment field indicate a high level being maintained well beyond this year.

SIDNEY SMITH

President-elect, University of Toronto

WITH the military might of the British Commonwealth, the United States and Russia on her western and eastern borders—the predicament that Hitler feared most—Germany may well be beaten into submission in the early spring of 1945. The success during 1944 of American and Australian arms in moving northward in the Pacific augurs well for a defeat of the last of the Axis powers within a shorter period than we dared hope.

The plan of Dumbarton Oaks may be incomplete in detail but we can be encouraged by the realization which prompted it that peace like war is indivisible.

There is a growing recognition of the need in the postwar world of minimum standards of social services. That need must be met. Full employment must be the foundation of the more abundant life for all Canadians. Government and business in complementary roles can lay more firmly that foundation.

The expression, “To make Canada fit for the heroes who will return,” should be a national goal rather than the high-sounding but rather empty slogan of 25 years ago. To attain that objective there must be a national resolution and will to work for peace and honor, truth and justice for which the flower of Canada’s manhood have made the supreme sacrifice. That calls for faith—a faith that is rooted in religious conviction. There are signs and portents that point to a resurgent faith instead of the dreary fatalism and the stark realism of the nineteen twenties. Out of that faith may Canadians in 1945 seek incessantly to translate into reality the great democratic postulate —e pluribus unum—from the many, one.

FREDERICK JOHNSON

President, The Bell Telephone Company of Canada

I DO not wish to make any pronouncement that would have the appearance of prognostication. However, the present position in Europe indicates that the war with Germany should terminate in 1945, and thereafter it can be expected that the war in the Pacific will be prosecuted to a conclusion with increased vigor. It is, I think, obvious that if 1945 is to register the progress we all hope for toward a better world, we must have an early and decisive victory over our enemies, involving sustained efforts on all fronts. Moreover, there must be continuous and unflagging effort by all the agencies set up to promote international understanding, reconstruction and cooperation. Such efforts presuppose a spirit of tolerance, good will and magnanimity, together with an alert and informed public opinion, without which no progress in the solution of world problems can be maintained.

The Very Rev. Peter Bryce

Former Moderator, United Church of Canada

I BELIEVE the year 1945 promises to be one of the most decisive years in the history of mankind.

It is probable that the war with Germany will end during 1945. The war with Japan may come to a successful issue toward the end of that year, with the help of Russia. That great country can make an immense contribution to the conquest of Japan, and it is generally believed she will do so. 

The obstacles that confront a successful and enduring peace are almost as great as those which faced Mr. Churchill in the dark days of 1942. I believe in 1945 there will emerge the instrument best-equipped to cope with these terrific problems. It may assume the form of a new League of Nations, known perhaps by another name, in which the United States will take an active and continuous part.

An election will no doubt take place in Canada in 1945, with what results it is difficult now to prophesy, as much will depend upon political developments in the closing weeks of 1944. Business and employment will probably continue at a high peak, with the greater production of civilian needs absorbing the workers no longer needed in war work. There is a strong public demand for the erection of many lower-priced houses to be ready as early as possible in 1945, in preparation for the return of the men of the armed forces.

It is unlikely that there will be much change in taxation. It would seem desirable to have the present governmental controls in business relaxed gradually to guard against possible inflation.

I believe 1945 will find us entering upon one of the great ages in man’s history, one of the supreme periods in human progress. We are in the midst of a world revolution. It is no longer possible to think or plan locally. As never before we are world citizens, for the world has suddenly become a neighborhood. We should approach the year 1945 with reverence and in humble dependence upon Almighty God.

R. S. LAW

President, United Grain Growers, Ltd.

I DO not feel safe in any prediction of the events of 1945 except that they will be extremely important, and that many of them will prove to have been unforeseen at this time. The following represents what can now be expected.

Armed resistance to the Allies in Germany will cease. Allied troops, including only a small representation from Canada, will continue in occupation, with a formal peace still in the future. The Japanese war will not be finished, but the end will appear near, with the Japanese driven from most of the Asiatic mainland and with Russia at war with Japan. Co-operation between Allied countries looking to a permanent organization to maintain the peace and the economic structure of the world will develop, without international organization, yet assuming definite form.

Following a general election in Canada there will be some changes in personnel of the Government. Business and employment in Canada will continue at a high level, with some strains due to shifts in production and employment. Food in Canada will be generally plentiful, the main exception being butter, rationing of which will continue. Some business controls, but not many, will be relaxed. Housing shortage in many places will be intensified as the return of some armed forces begins. There will be two more Victory Loan campaigns. There will be some, but slight, lessening of taxation, both of individuals and business, with, the latter encouraged to expect further modification the following year.

SENATOR W. A. BUCHANAN

Publisher, Lethbridge Herald

GERMANY’S determined resistance indicates that the war may run longer than predictions of our military and political leaders have led us to believe. Pressure against Japan from the United Nations, including Russia, may not develop until well toward the end of 1945.

Planning for the postwar period is so much more advanced that there is no basis for comparison with what happened after the last war. With proper direction from the new Department of Reconstruction, the Federal, Provincial and Municipal Governments, and private industry in friendly co-operation with other organizations should be able to meet the problems associated with demobilization and the loss of employment in war industries.

In the reconstruction period the diversification of agriculture in the sections of western Canada where it is possible to get away from wheat raising entirely should be a major consideration. Our water resources can be utilized to irrigate large areas, particularly in southern Alberta, with the result, as past experience has established, that almost every kind of farm product can be grown. In such areas secondary industry immediately follows with employment in sugar factories, canning factories and packing plants.

Again, as to reconstruction policies in respect to our natural resources, the possibilities of finding a more varied use for vast coal deposits throughout Canada should be completely covered by the Coal Commission set up by the Ottawa Government and which begins its sittings in 1945. In other countries coal products are being used for many purposes, and Canada should get away from the idea that coal is for fuel and power only. Very considerable industrial development can take place through a proper utilization of our coal resources.

As long as the war is in a critical state the country will not be agreeable to a Federal general election. Nothing would upset our war effort more than a couple of months of election campaigning with its cleavages and acrimonies, Nevertheless, an election sometime in 1945 seems inevitable.

Free exchange of news among the world’s nations will be among the important items on the agenda at the peace conference. The United States and, in all likelihood, Canada and Great Britain, will be the chief supporters of the ideal.

HUGH TEMPLIN

Editor, Fergus News-Record

AS EDITOR of a country newspaper I can speak only for the rural parts of Ontario. That rules out accurate guesses about the duration of the war or international politics, but I would expect the Germans to hold the west bank of the Rhine as long as possible, then make one more retreat and lose one last battle. The end of the war against Japan is too far away to foresee yet.

In national politics the CCF works quietly and makes progress but the rural districts are still suspicious of socialism. Progressive Conservatives cannot get a majority and the Liberals are losing heavily. With Quebec unlikely to support any of these Parties, I cannot see a stable government after the next election. The Liberals have a slim chance.

The farms need thousands of men now. Farmers are weary with long hours and overwork. If farm prices stay up, as I expect they will for some years, many older farmers will welcome the chance to retire.

Town industries have carried on without adequate help and will welcome back old employees and some new ones. Those doing war work have been careful to avoid overexpansion and will not find the transition too hard. Many town people expect widespread decentralization of industries. I don’t. That is sure to happen in Britain. In Canada the large cities will continue to offer inducements which towns cannot match.

There will be plenty of food but nearly every town needs houses. Farmers want hydro, water and bathrooms. Peat is plentiful in this part of Ontario but nobody wants to burn it.

Rural churches are more prosperous financially than for many years but they seem to have missed a great opportunity for spiritual revival.

D. C. MACLACHLAN

President, Maple Leaf Milling Company

IF THE war in Europe is still in progress labor and business conditions generally in 1945 will be about the same as they are now. There is bound to be a shortage of all consumer goods and a great shortage of labor in peacetime industries.

Canada cannot possibly have any degree of prosperity without large export markets for her surplus manufactured goods and farm products. We cannot count on the continuance of the large export business we have enjoyed since the start of the war unless some form of international exchange, such as suggested by the Bretton Woods agreements, is accepted and put into effect by all countries. Our Government representatives have taken a leading part at all international conferences held so far and this should be encouraged by everyone.

If international trade channels can be opened, Canada should be in a position to take every advantage of new markets. There is no doubt about our having large surplus quantities of agricultural products, such as wheat, coarse grains, hogs, eggs, etc., to ship overseas. These products of the farm come principally from western Canada. When the West has good markets there is generally prosperity throughout eastern Canada; then manufacturing industries in the East will run full time, creating maximum employment.

In order to build up an export business our manufactured goods and agricultural products will have to be sold at fair and reasonable prices. If surpluses of farm products pile up it might be well to continue mutual aid, because surely it is better to give these surpluses to countries which need them badly, but cannot afford to pay for them, than to have them accumulate in storage on the farms and in elevators throughout Canada.

RAYMOND ARTHUR DAVIES

Foreign Correspondent and Magazine Writer

THE war with Germany will end during the summer of 1945 with the joint American, British, Russian, French and Canadian occupation of Berlin.

Russia’s nonaggression treaty with Japan will expire. Russia will undertake a more definite policy in Asia versus Japan. This policy will be calculated to aid Allied victory. Churchill, Roosevelt and Stalin will meet and announce agreement on the occupation of Germany and postwar reconstruction.

The Polish issue will be settled by setting up united Polish Government in Warsaw composed of the Mikolajchik group from the exiles and the Lublin group. The Lublin group will have the majority. Mikolajchik will play a leading role in the new Government.

European elections will show a marked trend leftward.

A Balkan Federation of Nations centred around Jugoslavia will be created.

A Dominion election in Canada will be held. The Liberals will have a slight preponderance of seats over any other single Party. The Conservatives will return in greater strength. The CCF will have at least 65 seats. Tim Buck will be elected in Spadina Riding, Toronto.

Quebec issues will plague Canadian politics, which will become extremely unstable. The new House will lack definite majorities on all key issues.

Business will continue to boom. Employment will be stable. Toward the end of the year concern will develop as to employment in 1946. Indications of postwar crisis will cloud the horizon, and a drive to maintain Government controls will develop. Strong effort will be made to get Soviet and other foreign business. A Canadian business delegation will go to Russia.

Prices will remain high, as will taxes.

PAT CONROY

Sec.-Treas., Canadian Congress of Labor

FORECASTS regarding the war and international politics require inside knowledge of the policies and intentions of the policy makers before one can properly answer them.

Regarding national politics it seems certain that an election will take place in Canada in 1945 and the chances are that the vote will be split among at least four major political groups. Questions of housing, fuel, taxation, etc., depend upon government policy.

Speaking of faith and religion, it seems to me that if the people are going to flock back to the churches all faiths will have to adopt a more positive attitude in the matter of security for the people than they have hitherto shown. Pious statements and declarations have not brought the people back to the churches. Unified action by all faiths is necessary to restore the faith of the people in all religious denominations.

FAITH AND RELIGION

By Sherwood Eddy, Author of “Man Discovers God,” "A Portrait of Jesus"

WHILE I expect vast changes all over the world for the next three decades after the war, I do not expect any radical change in the matter of faith and religious belief in Canada or the United States during 1945.

While our sons have gone through the hell of war in Europe and the Pacific, we in North America have been too safe and too far away from the scene of conflict to have suffered any catastrophic change in our religious life. I find in Scripture, in reason, and in experience that there are four cardinal principles, four cornerstones that must be realized in any new world we seek to build—or in any just and lasting peace. These are Justice, Brotherhood, Liberty, and Religion—vital, dynamic, whole religion, that is both individual and social, that must build a new man within and a new society without.

It could be easily shown that the Anglo-Saxon people have realized two of these four principles and have stood and always will stand for liberty and for vital religion. Our missions, for instance, are the greatest on earth; but we have largely fallen down and failed to realize justice and brotherhood, especially equal racial brotherhood in the United States and in India. In the same way the Soviet Union, which I have visited 13 times since 1917, has failed disastrously on the first two cornerstones, or principles, of liberty and religion. They do not even know what they mean. But I believe that as truly as the Anglo-Saxon people will bless the world in the matter of liberty and religion, so Soviet Russia will be influential in the matter of justice and brotherhood.

The whole modern trend of world history is toward socialization and toward collectivism, in spite of the rampant individualism. I look for the growing realization of these four principles in the New World after the war, in spite of the chief danger and menace in the U. S. A. and the U. S. S. R. of a selfish isolationism. Whatever our faults we are going on to build, very slowly and painfully, a better world of Justice, Brotherwood, Liberty and Vital Religion. In this world movement and in the world mission of Christianity the churches of prosperous North America must play a leading part, and we must make a beginning in 1945.

SPORT

By Jim Coleman, Toronto Globe and Mail Sports Columnist

THE sporting scene in 1945? It can be summed up briefly—more money, higher prices, bigger crowds for spectator sports, more suckers and, generally speaking, the same old athletes, a few of whom may be forced to resort to ersatz girdles to conceal the fact that The Body Beautiful is assuming aldermanic contours.

In making predictions concerning sport, only one thing is definite—the sucker always will be with us. The customers will beat out each other’s brains in their attempt to pay higher prices to witness entertainment which is inferior to that which they witnessed in pre-war years. However, everyone will be happy—particularly the professional promoters.

A few random guesses: The East-West football final will be resumed in Canada; the million-dollar gate will return to boxing only if Joe Louis is released from the Army or U. S. military authorities permit him to engage in a heavyweight championship bout; Pot O Luck will win the Kentucky Derby; an unpublicized longshot will win The King’s Plate; the St. Louis Cardinals will win the National League pennant; the New York Yankees will win the American League and the Yankees still will be wealthy enough to win the World Series; Les Canadiens, Montreal, will retain the Stanley Cup; there will be more golf balls and tennis balls, and “participant” sports will make a comeback in direct proportion to the ; available amount of this important sportive bric-a-brac; the bookmakers will continue to moan that “times are terrible.”

The most successful of all sporting industries—horse racing -will continue to do astounding business in Canada, despite a general tendency on the part of Provincial Governments to increase taxation. Attendance receipts and parimutuel wagering probably will break all records—betting showing a tidy increase over the $37,000,000 registered last year. That figure, of course, has nothing to do with the additional $30,000,000 which warworkers, members of the armed services, chambermaids and newsboys will wager quite illegally through books. 

Photos of Senator Buchanan and Pat Conroy by Karsh.